Blog
Of Rates And Recession
As always, we maintain that the best response to forecasted, perceived, or real market volatility is not a response at all; it is prior preparation through the financial planning process which enables an investor to maintain discipline and focus during volatile times.
How Should We Respond?
They were mostly wrong and remain disappointed as 3QTR2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rang in at a surprisingly high reading of 4.9% annualized. Consumers continued to spend despite higher interest payments on goods and services. If growth has remained solid, then why has the stock market been so volatile as of late?
Persistent Inflation & Bank Failures
Here we go again! Volatility re-emerged in March to the extent that the hope-generating year-to-date gains of the S&P500 were all but wiped out. If you’ve filled up your tank or been to the grocery store recently, you’re aware that inflation is stubbornly...
Know Thyself: Market Commentary – September 2022
Additionally, it is well documented that investors routinely underperform relative benchmarks when left to their own devices; not for reasons necessarily related to inferior investment selection, but because the human condition is to respond emotionally to market volatility and succumb to the cat-and-mouse game of market timing.
This Isn’t Fun…but
Allowing emotions to inform actions has proven time and again to be detrimental to long-term investment performance as our decisions tend to lag the market. We maintain that now is the time to be reminded of the long-term disciplines that have rewarded investors, and market timing rarely works and is almost never repeatable.
Where Do We Go From Here?
I’m reminded that bull markets don’t die of old age, they typically transition to corrections due to shock events or legislative/fiscal policy changes.
It is very possible that we are entering a period of market volatility and even correction as the markets digest the potential for significant tax increases and persistent inflation.
What’s In Store for 2022?
this hypothesis of “efficient markets” represents the basis of our conviction that markets cannot be consistently timed for entrance and exit and serves as a reminder that while markets are efficient, they are not always predictable as new information is constantly introduced and adjusting discounted future expectations.
The Market Is Going to Drop
What I’m encouraged about: The U.S. consumer is still strong. There are nearly two jobs available What I’m keeping an eye on Reduce exemption on estate tax ($5.5M). Dropped attack on step-up in cost basis in capital gains. Capital Gains rates may still be going...
What’s in Store for 2021?
Buying at market peaks and selling at troughs, while understandable, exemplifies the emotional nature of investor psychology and behavior. Our fear of loss is much stronger than our desire for gain, but both fear and greed can lead even the most seasoned/savvy investor astray. Discipline is the key to long-term wealth building, and one of the best things we can do is to rebalance a properly allocated portfolio during periods of volatility.
Markets Climb a Wall of Worry
There is no shortage of cliches to describe 2020: “unprecedented”, “new normal”, “uncertainty” are just a few that come to mind. It is especially attention-grabbing how the market has responded. The S&P 500 index of U.S. corporate stock prices recently hit an...